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Wind Rush

The Case of the disappearing CO2 Savings

One explanation for the Wind Rush must be the Government’s desire to be ‘top of the class’ when it comes to meeting international goals for Carbon Dioxide emissions reductions, particularly European targets. In the 1990’s Britain proudly boasted of its superiority in this field, which actually arose from an earlier Dash for Gas, when Germany was having to deal with East German dirty coal power stations. In recent years the UK has slipped in this respect and has looked to wind power to help out, but for a number of reasons this is not happening:

• The number of windfarms being installed is rising very slowly . This is mainly because they are an environmental disaster and are resisted by the 151 windfarm action groups
  see (www.countryguardian.net/campaign windfarm action groups.htm)
• Wind energy is ineffective because the wind is intermittent, and because the conversion of wind currents into electricity is inefficient . Windfarms therefore operate at a fraction of their installed (nominal) capacity. A lot depends on the average wind speed at the site and the height of the turbine. Up till recently the average factor has been taken to be 30%, but now that the Renewables Obligation Certificate data is available we are beginning to learn that the average is nearer to 27%, and for turbines in inland low-lying locations it can be as low as 8%.
• The amount of CO2 saved by the turbines depends on the amount of CO2 emitted by the particular fuel used . This has been a contentious issue for some years, but persistent probing at the Adverting Standards Authority has finally established the correct answer, which is a specific combination of gas and coal. The result is that we are to use a figure of 370 grammes of CO2 saved for every kilowatt hour of electricity produced by a wind turbine. This is 42% of the current figure of 870 grammes. The BWEA is currently working with the relevant government department (BERR) on the exact figure to use and it will soon be incorporated in the BWEA UKWED database.
• the Renewable Energy Certificates system is defective, as argued by the Government’s own watchdog Ofgem.
• The Government has begun to realise very late in the day that its obsession with wind, to the exclusion of other renewables has been a big mistake.

Background

1. The number of windfarms is rising very slowly. Perhaps the best source for this is the BWEA website. BWEA complains about the slowness of the Planning System, but this is a direct result of environmental damage caused by wind turbines, without which there would have been far less opposition.

From a pro-wind seminar

“Anti-Windfarm groups are becoming much more organised and co-operative. Within 24 hours of the developer announcing a recent project, an opposition group from another county had contacted all local parishes and district councillors”.

1. Wind energy is ineffective.

For the essential technical weakness of wind turbines read The Case Against Windfarms, Section 7: Technical aspects of windfarms, (www.countryguardian.net/Case technical.htm ), from which the following is an extract.

In summary, a wind turbine cannot generate until there is sufficient wind, usually about 4 m/s, called the 'cut-in' speed. The machine does not reach peak generation until about 15 m/s. It then maintains a constant output with increasing speed up to a safety 'cut-out' speed of 25 m/s.

Between the cut-in speed and cut-out speed the turbine uses gearing techniques to get as much energy as possible at any specific wind speed, so it might be turning but still be producing little electricity. It is generally accepted that an average wind speed of a least 6 metres per second is the minimum practicable for a wind turbine to be viable. However, a turbine operating at this level is only using a fraction of its Installed (i.e. nominal ) capacity.

If you feel like a really deep immersion in this subject go to Wind Energy: Facts and Fiction; A half truth is a whole lie by JA Halkema. (www.countryguardian.net/Halkema.htm )

One net effect of this inefficiency is that the actual output of wind turbines is less than expected

3. The amount of CO2 saved by the turbines depends on the amount of CO2 emitted by the particular fuel used .

The Advertising Standards Authority and CO2 savings.

Wherever windfarms are promoted the figure of “tonnes of CO2 saved” is proudly trumpeted, and these figures are fed into multiple levels of statistical analysis. But the truth is that these figures are not correct. They are based on wrong assumptions about the actual fuel mix replaced by wind in the UK . Several objector groups have complained to the Advertising Standards Authority, which eventually recognised this in an adjudication in the case of the Fullabrook Down windfarm. At last the government department responsible for Energy, now called BERR, has made this official.

The last link in the chain is for the wind industry itself to acknowledge the facts and the BWEA has effectively done this. In a statement on its website (see below and at http://www.bwea.com/media/news/071015.html.

It is vital that these facts be made public, at both local and national level, as they clearly undermine any surviving claims that wind energy has any credibility.

The current calculation used in UKWED (November 2007), the BWEA’s database, uses the old formula, which shows the annual saving in CO2 emissions from 1899 turbines to be 5,184,364 tonnes, which should now be replaced by 2,230,593 tonnes. And this is based on the assumption of a 30% average load factor; it does not take into account the evidence from ROC statistics that the average is nearer 27%.

Further reading

An interesting footnote on the ASA and Wind energy ( www.countryguardian.net/halkema.htm )

4. the Renewable Energy Certificates system is defective, as argued by the Government’s own watchdog Ofgem.

Ofgem recently made an unprecedented attack on the Government’s policy of relying on the ROC system to promote the use of renewable energy. In a recent report (Sustainable Development Report http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/Documents1/Sustainable%20Development%20Report%20-%20Master%202007-10-30.pdf

These are some extracts:

How to find the actual load factor of existing windfarms in the UK

The disclosure of the actual load factors of the existing 1899 turbines on the 184 operational windfarms, available as a result of the Renewables Obligation , shows the average come out at around 27%. But because of the ROC system( which tries to ensure that wind energy will always command a higher price than conventional energy) , developers are trying to sign up potential “wind farmers” in areas where the wind speed are very marginal. We are indebted to members of the Windfarm action group CLOWD (www.clowd.org.uk) for producing a complete UK Wind Generation 2006 - by site.( www.countryguardian.net/(Ofgem)ROC_wind_2006(03September2007).pdf )

Some of these turbines have load factors way below 27%, mainly in inland, lowland area, which is where the carpet-baggers are hoping to sign up a large number of farmers and other land owners. A

If you want to find the wind speed at any particular location go to:

www.dti.gov.uk/energuy/sources/renewables/renewables-explained/wind-energy/page27885.html.

You will need either the grid reference or the post code

Finally..

Costing the Earth – This BBC programme lifts the lid on the subsidies levied on energy consumers, which underpin ineffective wind turbines. Read the BBC News summary of the programme and a comment from Country Guardian's Vice President.

This is a short extract:

Engineering consultant Jim Oswald has analysed the figures submitted to the electricity watchdog Ofgem on every wind farm's load factor - the amount of wind generated across the year. The recommended load factor for a viable and efficient wind development is 30%, but he says the average across Britain is 28%. He says the problem lies with the volatility of the wind and although Britain is the windiest country in Europe , it’s not consistently windy enough to generate a regular energy supply